SSE Riga/BICEPS Occasional Papers
Stagflation in Latvia: How Long, How Far, How Deep?
Alf Vanags (BICEPS) and Morten Hansen (Stockholm School of Economics in Riga and BICEPS), September 2008
What a difference a year makes. The previous report, from June 2007, focussed on overheating of the Latvian economy and rising inflation. Now, some 14 months later, the Latvian economy has entered recession as measured by two consecutive quarters of seasonally adjusted GDP decline. At the same time the latest inflation rate is down from the peak observed in May of this year.
Competition in the Latvian and Baltic Grocery Retail Markets
Anders Paalzow (BICEPS and Stockholm School of Economics) and Alf Vanags (BICEPS), September 2007
This report analyzes concentration in the grocery retail market in the three Baltic countries: Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. The markets (including some comparator Eastern and Western European markets) are analyzed using two standard measures: the Herfindahl Hirschman Index and the four firm concentration ratio.
Inflation in Latvia: Causes, Prospects and Consequences
Morten Hansen (BICEPS and Stockholm School of Economics) and Alf Vanags (BICEPS), June 2007
This report is the second in an annual series produced by BICEPS and SSE Riga on macro policy issues. The 2007 report is again on inflation but this time focusing only on Latvia. The inflation problem in Latvia has not gone away and if anything has intensified since early 2006 to the extent that the Latvian government was forced into action to set up a working group on inflation which eventually published an anti- inflation plan early March 2007.
Morten Hansen (BICEPS and Stockholm School of Economics) and Alf Vanags (BICEPS), June 2006
This paper examines the inflation experience of the EU new member states (NMS) since 2000, with particular focus on the three Baltic countries, and asks why inflation in particular in Estonia and in Latvia has been so different from other NMS. A second part of the paper argues that the Maastricht inflation criterion increasingly unlikely to be met and that euro adoption may have to be postponed for quite a long time in the Baltic states.